Spread: Elche CF (-3.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold UD Pinatar (67%) · UD Pinatar at 61¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
UD Pinatar
3
UD Pinatar 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.1K
$184.5
51.5¢ → 60.5¢
+17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUD Pinatar at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | UD Pinataravg 51.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$180.58 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | UD Pinataravg 51.6¢ | $432.33 | $436.01 | +$3.68 | 55% 1671-1366 (3037) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Elche CFavg 47.5¢ | $302.8 | $302.42 | -$0.38 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
| └ Elche CF leg | Elche CFavg 47.5¢ | $179.84 | $181.78 | +$1.94 | |
| └ UD Pinatar leg | UD Pinataravg 53¢ | $122.96 | $120.64 | -$2.32 | |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | UD Pinataravg 51.6¢ | $53.28 | $52.85 | -$0.44 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
| └ UD Pinatar leg | UD Pinataravg 51.6¢ | $30.18 | $27.2 | -$2.98 | |
| └ Elche CF leg | Elche CFavg 48.2¢ | $23.11 | $25.65 | +$2.54 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Elche CFavg 47¢ | $11.28 | $11.52 | +$0.24 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
Invested
$1,141.54
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$180.58
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$432.33
Value
$436.01
PnL
+$3.68
Record
55%
1671-1366 (3037)
Invested
$302.8
Value
$302.42
PnL
-$0.38
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Both legs:
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$53.28
Value
$52.85
PnL
-$0.44
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.28
Value
$11.52
PnL
+$0.24
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.