Will Elche CF win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$129.33

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 87.5¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,446

Combined PnL+$20.53

No6 traders

Total Value$181.36

Total Shares1,657

Combined PnL+$108.79

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 94.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$19.13	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 4¢	$45.96	$155.12	+$109.16	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 84.8¢	$55.79	$56.91	+$1.12	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$54.15	$53.58	+$0.29	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 5.6¢	$14.56	$8.71	-$5.85	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$5	$6	+$1	51% 1209-1141 (2350)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 2.4¢	$0.98	$5.74	+$4.75	52% 5822-5445 (11267)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$3	$4.5	+$0.38	63% 1047-604 (1651)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$1.93	$1.29	-$0.65	60% 9116-6042 (15158)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,248.01

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$19.13

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$45.96

Value

$155.12

PnL

+$109.16

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.79

Value

$56.91

PnL

+$1.12

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.15

Value

$53.58

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$14.56

Value

$8.71

PnL

-$5.85

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

1209-1141 (2350)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$0.98

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$4.75

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.38

Record

63%

1047-604 (1651)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$0.65

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.