Will SD Huesca win on 2026-10-28?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
10
Yes 80%
$2.5K
-$300.37
69.6¢ → 50¢
-28% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 73.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$229.34 | 50% 24690-24365 (49055) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 63.4¢ | $820.01 | $724.12 | -$95.89 | 49% 18820-19225 (38045) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 74¢ | $327.65 | $322.79 | -$4.87 | 54% 56041-48162 (104203) |
SN SnakeBall | Yesavg 92¢ | $157.96 | $158.82 | +$0.86 | 50% 33062-32629 (65691) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 62.4¢ | $68.65 | $70.95 | +$2.3 | 59% 45107-31485 (76592) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 59.9¢ | $57.18 | $70.91 | +$13.73 | 54% 6135-5210 (11345) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $50.05 | $60.78 | +$10.73 | 49% 12397-12715 (25112) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $5 | $7.08 | +$2.08 | 59% 9684-6679 (16363) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $1.53 | $1.68 | +$0.15 | 52% 3691-3354 (7045) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $1.76 | $1.63 | -$0.13 | 73% 1527-553 (2080) |
Invested
$1,283.15
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$229.34
Record
50%
24690-24365 (49055)
Invested
$820.01
Value
$724.12
PnL
-$95.89
Record
49%
18820-19225 (38045)
RN1Invested
$327.65
Value
$322.79
PnL
-$4.87
Record
54%
56041-48162 (104203)
Invested
$157.96
Value
$158.82
PnL
+$0.86
Record
50%
33062-32629 (65691)
Invested
$68.65
Value
$70.95
PnL
+$2.3
Record
59%
45107-31485 (76592)
Invested
$57.18
Value
$70.91
PnL
+$13.73
Record
54%
6135-5210 (11345)
Invested
$50.05
Value
$60.78
PnL
+$10.73
Record
49%
12397-12715 (25112)
poshposh<$100Invested
$5
Value
$7.08
PnL
+$2.08
Record
59%
9684-6679 (16363)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.68
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
3691-3354 (7045)
Invested
$1.76
Value
$1.63
PnL
-$0.13
Record
73%
1527-553 (2080)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.