Spread: Getafe CF (-3.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold UB Lebrijana (67%) · UB Lebrijana at 60¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29
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Neutral
UB Lebrijana
3
UB Lebrijana 67%
$5.8K
$958.95
57.7¢ → 60¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUB Lebrijana at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justbusiness1 | UB Lebrijanaavg 57.8¢ | $4.6K | $5.6K | +$951.18 | 53% 260-228 (488) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | UB Lebrijanaavg 54¢ | $120.38 | $133.66 | +$13.28 | 55% 1708-1409 (3117) |
 HRTradingCTR | Getafe CFavg 41.9¢ | $120.71 | $115.2 | -$5.51 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.