Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (92%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-10-29?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 8.0¢ · $81 held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 67%
$81.01
$3.05
Research grade
AvoidNo at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 94.2¢ | $61.31 | $61.18 | +$0.19 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 7.5¢ | $14.54 | $15.6 | +$1.06 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $3.66 | $4.24 | +$1.79 | 53% 2127-1893 (4020) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.