Will UB Lebrijana vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $683 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$683.25
-$515.39
97.4¢ → 95.8¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 98¢ | $514.5 | $262.5 | -$252 | 52% 4946-4559 (9505) |
ME merod | Noavg 97.3¢ | $476.87 | $245 | -$231.87 | 52% 2443-2243 (4686) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 96.2¢ | $182.81 | $95 | -$87.81 | 59% 45093-31481 (76574) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $5.22 | $70.58 | +$65.35 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $19.23 | $10.17 | -$9.06 | 52% 3686-3349 (7035) |
Invested
$514.5
Value
$262.5
PnL
-$252
Record
52%
4946-4559 (9505)
Invested
$476.87
Value
$245
PnL
-$231.87
Record
52%
2443-2243 (4686)
Invested
$182.81
Value
$95
PnL
-$87.81
Record
59%
45093-31481 (76574)
Invested
$5.22
Value
$70.58
PnL
+$65.35
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.23
Value
$10.17
PnL
-$9.06
Record
52%
3686-3349 (7035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.