Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AD Sporting Hortaleza vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 5.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 36¢ · $700 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$700.38
-$13.15
36.4¢ → 35.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 36¢ | $474.57 | $467.98 | -$6.59 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $96.05 | $96.05 | +$0 | 59% 9693-6689 (16382) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $88.47 | $88.47 | -$1.23 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $42.99 | $36 | -$5 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $12.21 | $11.88 | -$0.33 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
Invested
$474.57
Value
$467.98
PnL
-$6.59
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$96.05
Value
$96.05
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
9693-6689 (16382)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$88.47
Value
$88.47
PnL
-$1.23
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$42.99
Value
$36
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$12.21
Value
$11.88
PnL
-$0.33
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.