AD Sporting Hortaleza vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 54¢ · $726 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$725.9
-$12.2
55¢ → 54¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 55¢ | $576.36 | $565.39 | -$10.97 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 54.3¢ | $121.48 | $90.3 | -$0.76 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $58.19 | $58.19 | +$0 | 50% 3763-3735 (7498) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 56.1¢ | $8.98 | $8.64 | -$0.34 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $3.5 | $3.38 | -$0.13 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
Invested
$576.36
Value
$565.39
PnL
-$10.97
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
VeryLucky888Invested
$121.48
Value
$90.3
PnL
-$0.76
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$58.19
Value
$58.19
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3763-3735 (7498)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.98
Value
$8.64
PnL
-$0.34
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.38
PnL
-$0.13
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.