Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-29?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 3.5¢ · $38 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$37.56
-$61.37
Research grade
AvoidNo at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.1¢ | $84.36 | $23.04 | -$61.32 | 38% 365-591 (956) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 93.7¢ | $14.06 | $14.15 | +$0.09 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.7¢ | $0.19 | $0.18 | -$0.01 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $0.34 | $0.18 | -$0.13 | 59% 9671-6655 (16326) |
Invested
$84.36
Value
$23.04
PnL
-$61.32
Record
38%
365-591 (956)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.06
Value
$14.15
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.34
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.13
Record
59%
9671-6655 (16326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.