Will Gimnástica Segoviana CF win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 72¢ · $690 held · ended Oct 27

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$690.44

Combined PnL

$56.86

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 71.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$484.46

Total Shares660

Combined PnL-$3.09

Yes3 traders

Total Value$205.98

Total Shares572

Combined PnL+$59.94

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 73.9¢	$460.67	$461.17	+$0.5	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$77.44	$111.56	+$34.13	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.8¢	$47.9	$62.02	+$14.11	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$20.7	$32.4	+$11.7	50% 3675-3651 (7326)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 74¢	$25.07	$21.68	-$3.39	52% 5822-5445 (11267)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 72¢	$1.81	$1.61	-$0.2	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$460.67

Value

$461.17

PnL

+$0.5

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$77.44

Value

$111.56

PnL

+$34.13

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.9

Value

$62.02

PnL

+$14.11

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.7

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$11.7

Record

50%

3675-3651 (7326)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$25.07

Value

$21.68

PnL

-$3.39

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.