Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 60¢ · $652 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$651.55
$23.84
51.5¢ → 60¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 46.2¢ | $270.97 | $302.05 | +$31.08 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 51.1¢ | $165.66 | $162 | -$3.66 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 52¢ | $147.33 | $141.67 | -$5.67 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $20.08 | $22.98 | +$2.9 | 52% 5822-5445 (11267) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $16.55 | $16.05 | -$0.5 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.8¢ | $7.11 | $6.8 | -$0.31 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$270.97
Value
$302.05
PnL
+$31.08
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$165.66
Value
$162
PnL
-$3.66
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$147.33
Value
$141.67
PnL
-$5.67
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$20.08
Value
$22.98
PnL
+$2.9
Record
52%
5822-5445 (11267)
Invested
$16.55
Value
$16.05
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.11
Value
$6.8
PnL
-$0.31
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.