Will UE Sant Andreu win on 2026-10-27?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 57¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$9.1K
$-1.5K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justbusiness1 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $6.6K | $5.2K | $-1.4K | 53% 254-225 (479) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $3.3K | $3.1K | -$181.02 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 45.4¢ | $661.08 | $669.64 | +$8.56 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 45.4¢ | $123.57 | $125.12 | +$1.55 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $40.7 | $51.1 | +$10.4 | 52% 5822-5445 (11267) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $2.52 | $2.38 | -$0.14 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$6,583.9
Value
$5.2K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
53%
254-225 (479)
RN1CTRInvested
$3,258.36
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$181.02
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$661.08
Value
$669.64
PnL
+$8.56
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$123.57
Value
$125.12
PnL
+$1.55
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$40.7
Value
$51.1
PnL
+$10.4
Record
52%
5822-5445 (11267)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.14
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.