Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Levante UD leading at halftime?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$8.5K
$1.0K
63.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 64¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$41.37 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 48¢ | $1.2K | $2.5K | +$1.3K | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
JU justbusiness1 | Noavg 36¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$59.89 | 0% 0-21 (21) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 64¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$222.36 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 63¢ | $132.75 | $132.75 | +$0 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $21.7 | $22.56 | +$0.86 | 36% 209-369 (578) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 61.7¢ | $47.61 | $10.02 | -$37.59 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $5.83 | $3.62 | -$2.21 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
Invested
$2,647.67
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$41.37
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$1,184.15
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
Invested
$2,156.17
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$59.89
Record
0%
0-21 (21)
Invested
$1,241.8
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$222.36
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
Invested
$132.75
Value
$132.75
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$21.7
Value
$22.56
PnL
+$0.86
Record
36%
209-369 (578)
Invested
$47.61
Value
$10.02
PnL
-$37.59
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
Invested
$5.83
Value
$3.62
PnL
-$2.21
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.