CD Manacor vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 66¢ · $332 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$331.55
$19.73
61.8¢ → 66¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU lukibazdonauki754 | Noavg 55¢ | $110 | $136 | +$26 | 60% 852-566 (1418) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 33.8¢ | $108.32 | $109.02 | +$0.7 | 49% 18399-18822 (37221) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $85.81 | $78.27 | -$6.95 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $8.36 | $8.27 | -$0.01 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
Invested
$110
Value
$136
PnL
+$26
Record
60%
852-566 (1418)
Invested
$108.32
Value
$109.02
PnL
+$0.7
Record
49%
18399-18822 (37221)
Invested
$85.81
Value
$78.27
PnL
-$6.95
Record
58%
27870-20508 (48378)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.36
Value
$8.27
PnL
-$0.01
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.