Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Cuarte vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 41¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
$7.6K
$923.12
36¢ → 41¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 36¢ | $6.6K | $7.5K | +$911.37 | 59% 44247-30614 (74861) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $63.36 | $72.16 | +$7.92 | 58% 27869-20504 (48373) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 36.7¢ | $41.74 | $46.05 | +$3.83 | 54% 2558-2193 (4751) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.