CD Cuarte vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$1.3K
$0.12
59¢ → 59¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LA LaarsY | Overavg 59¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 50% 3360-3309 (6669) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 59¢ | $132.19 | $132.36 | +$0.16 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $47.2 | $47.2 | +$0 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 59.1¢ | $25.41 | $25.37 | -$0.04 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
Invested
$1,092.08
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3360-3309 (6669)
Invested
$132.19
Value
$132.36
PnL
+$0.16
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$47.2
Value
$47.2
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$25.41
Value
$25.37
PnL
-$0.04
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.