CD Cuarte vs. Girona FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$4.2K
$487.32
76.8¢ → 100¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 70.9¢ | $1.8K | $2.2K | +$401.97 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72 | Underavg 83.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$93.1 | 72% 2228-852 (3080) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $163.8 | $203.93 | +$40.13 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70¢ | $133.42 | $102.92 | -$30.5 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 13.8¢ | $30.38 | $101.01 | +$70.62 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $19.26 | $16.93 | -$2.33 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 24¢ | $7.43 | $2.01 | -$5.42 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
RN1Invested
$1,824.48
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$401.97
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$1,637.81
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$93.1
Record
72%
2228-852 (3080)
Invested
$163.8
Value
$203.93
PnL
+$40.13
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.26
Value
$16.93
PnL
-$2.33
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.43
Value
$2.01
PnL
-$5.42
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.