Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$1.3K
-$207.56
96.8¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 98.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$74.32 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 90.1¢ | $220.25 | $224.94 | +$4.69 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $38.64 | $38.64 | +$0 | 76% 3882-1237 (5119) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 38.6¢ | $175.03 | $36.3 | -$138.73 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $8.85 | $9.86 | +$0.63 | 60% 9138-6084 (15222) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 62.2¢ | $9.14 | $9.3 | +$0.16 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
Invested
$1,074.37
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$74.32
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Invested
$220.25
Value
$224.94
PnL
+$4.69
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
Invested
$38.64
Value
$38.64
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
3882-1237 (5119)
Invested
$175.03
Value
$36.3
PnL
-$138.73
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$8.85
Value
$9.86
PnL
+$0.63
Record
60%
9138-6084 (15222)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.14
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0.16
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.