Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CD Numancia (80%) · CD Numancia at 75¢ · $773 held · ended Oct 28

Real Oviedo25¢CD Numancia75¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Numancia

Consensus Traders

CD Numancia 80%

Total Value

$772.5

Combined PnL

-$63.22

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 75¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Numancia at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Numancia

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Oviedo25%

CD Numancia75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Numancia4 traders

Total Value$719.54

Total Shares1,034

Combined PnL-$93.72

Real Oviedo1 trader

Total Value$52.96

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$30.49

CD Numancia — 80%Real Oviedo — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	CD Numanciaavg 75¢	$352.03	$347.21	-$4.82	50% 24686-24362 (49048)
LU LuckyLoo	CD Numanciaavg 73¢	$307.96	$213.04	-$94.92	49% 12393-12710 (25103)
UP UpTheBlues	CD Numanciaavg 79¢	$151.08	$157.82	+$6.74	59% 45094-31483 (76577)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Real Oviedoavg 21¢	$22.47	$52.96	+$30.49	58% 28254-20837 (49091)
HRTrading<$100	CD Numanciaavg 75.5¢	$2.19	$1.46	-$0.73	52% 3688-3350 (7038)

GoalLineGhost

CD Numancia

Invested

$352.03

Value

$347.21

PnL

-$4.82

Record

50%

24686-24362 (49048)

LuckyLoo

CD Numancia

Invested

$307.96

Value

$213.04

PnL

-$94.92

Record

49%

12393-12710 (25103)

UpTheBlues

CD Numancia

Invested

$151.08

Value

$157.82

PnL

+$6.74

Record

59%

45094-31483 (76577)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Real Oviedo

Invested

$22.47

Value

$52.96

PnL

+$30.49

Record

58%

28254-20837 (49091)

HRTrading<$100

CD Numancia

Invested

$2.19

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.73

Record

52%

3688-3350 (7038)

Research grade

NeutralCD Numancia at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CD Numancia

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Numancia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.