Will CD Numancia win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
-$38.18
76.2¢ → 79¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 75.7¢ | $652.54 | $607.36 | -$45.18 | 59% 45090-31481 (76571) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 77.2¢ | $456.28 | $466.23 | +$9.96 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $19.89 | $17.98 | -$1.91 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $17.41 | $15.94 | -$1.47 | 50% 33056-32624 (65680) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $1.05 | $1.47 | +$0.42 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
Invested
$652.54
Value
$607.36
PnL
-$45.18
Record
59%
45090-31481 (76571)
Invested
$456.28
Value
$466.23
PnL
+$9.96
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$17.98
PnL
-$1.91
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
Invested
$17.41
Value
$15.94
PnL
-$1.47
Record
50%
33056-32624 (65680)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0.42
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.