Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-10-27?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$57.83

Smart Money Entry

37.4¢ → 74.5¢

+99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,468

Combined PnL+$116.87

Yes3 traders

Total Value$741.49

Total Shares1,199

Combined PnL-$59.04

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 39.5¢	$583.35	$590.19	+$6.84	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 61.5¢	$607.43	$569.38	-$38.05	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 36.8¢	$323.88	$386.81	+$62.93	49% 18442-18863 (37305)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 35.2¢	$340.4	$372	+$31.6	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 63¢	$181.5	$161.47	-$20.04	50% 32622-32156 (64778)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 34¢	$47.43	$61.38	+$13.95	50% 11976-12131 (24107)
BA Bayupati<$100	Noavg 37¢	$28.48	$33.86	+$5.39	50% 183-180 (363)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$11.59	$10.64	-$0.95	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 76¢	$9.12	$5.28	-$3.84	59% 29949-20668 (50617)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$583.35

Value

$590.19

PnL

+$6.84

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$607.43

Value

$569.38

PnL

-$38.05

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$323.88

Value

$386.81

PnL

+$62.93

Record

49%

18442-18863 (37305)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$340.4

Value

$372

PnL

+$31.6

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$181.5

Value

$161.47

PnL

-$20.04

Record

50%

32622-32156 (64778)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$47.43

Value

$61.38

PnL

+$13.95

Record

50%

11976-12131 (24107)

Bayupati<$100

Invested

$28.48

Value

$33.86

PnL

+$5.39

Record

50%

183-180 (363)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.59

Value

$10.64

PnL

-$0.95

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$9.12

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$3.84

Record

59%

29949-20668 (50617)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.