Will UD Almería win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 55¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Yes55¢No45¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$13.82

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 54.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,352

Combined PnL-$53.47

No6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,532

Combined PnL+$67.29

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$48.63	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
RN1CTR	Noavg 45¢	$657	$664.3	+$7.3	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 45¢	$476.19	$492.06	+$15.87	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 33.2¢	$205.78	$235.2	+$29.43	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 40.5¢	$165.71	$177.75	+$12.04	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$53.6	$50.8	-$2.8	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$28.66	$30.29	+$1.63	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$10.67	$8.63	-$2.04	93% 2975-231 (3206)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 35.9¢	$5.56	$6.59	+$1.03	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$1,790.79

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$48.63

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

RN1CTR

Invested

$657

Value

$664.3

PnL

+$7.3

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$476.19

Value

$492.06

PnL

+$15.87

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$205.78

Value

$235.2

PnL

+$29.43

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$165.71

Value

$177.75

PnL

+$12.04

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.6

Value

$50.8

PnL

-$2.8

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$28.66

Value

$30.29

PnL

+$1.63

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.67

Value

$8.63

PnL

-$2.04

Record

93%

2975-231 (3206)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$5.56

Value

$6.59

PnL

+$1.03

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.