Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CF Calamocha vs. CE Europa: O/U 2.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
$1.8K
-$45.95
46.3¢ → 45¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Overavg 46.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$43.19 | 51% 1630-1570 (3200) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Overavg 47.6¢ | $140 | $132.24 | -$7.76 | 58% 5718-4199 (9917) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $36.41 | $36.41 | +$0 | 54% 2551-2184 (4735) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $50 | $18.17 | +$5 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
us391CTRInvested
$1,690.31
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$43.19
Record
51%
1630-1570 (3200)
Invested
$140
Value
$132.24
PnL
-$7.76
Record
58%
5718-4199 (9917)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$36.41
Value
$36.41
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2551-2184 (4735)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$50
Value
$18.17
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.