Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (83%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will CE Europa win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 18¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 50%
$1.7K
$-1.4K
46.5¢ → 17.5¢
-62% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 46.5¢ | $2.2K | $801.33 | $-1.4K | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
SA Saber-greed | Yesavg 51¢ | $584.04 | $629.84 | +$45.81 | 59% 2512-1739 (4251) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $145.69 | $139.49 | -$6.2 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 81¢ | $106.77 | $107.43 | +$0.66 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 68.6¢ | $42.51 | $40.34 | -$2.17 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $19.05 | $19.7 | +$0.65 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $4.21 | $4.21 | +$0 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $1.09 | $1.03 | -$0.06 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
RN1CTRInvested
$2,192.68
Value
$801.33
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$584.04
Value
$629.84
PnL
+$45.81
Record
59%
2512-1739 (4251)
Invested
$145.69
Value
$139.49
PnL
-$6.2
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$106.77
Value
$107.43
PnL
+$0.66
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$42.51
Value
$40.34
PnL
-$2.17
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$19.05
Value
$19.7
PnL
+$0.65
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
Invested
$4.21
Value
$4.21
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.06
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.