Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CF Calamocha win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 2.5¢ · $180 held · ended Oct 27

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$180.12

Combined PnL

$17.44

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$84.12

Total Shares125

Combined PnL-$14.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$96

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$31.77

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 79¢	$98.45	$84.12	-$14.33	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$37.17	$57.53	+$20.35	50% 3675-3651 (7326)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$25.96	$38.35	+$12.39	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.1	$0.12	-$0.98	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$98.45

Value

$84.12

PnL

-$14.33

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.17

Value

$57.53

PnL

+$20.35

Record

50%

3675-3651 (7326)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.96

Value

$38.35

PnL

+$12.39

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.98

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.6%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2665.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

2765.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.