Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CD Atlético Baleares win on 2026-10-29?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 50¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
1 arb excluded
$8.1K
-$290.14
73¢ → 50¢
-31% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.6K | $3.4K | -$225 | 54% 56041-48162 (104203) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$34.26 | 49% 18827-19233 (38060) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$19.52 | 50% 24690-24365 (49055) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.2¢ | $826.64 | $796.16 | -$30.48 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $312.15 | $323.11 | +$10.96 | |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 73¢ | $730 | $735 | +$5 | 47% 2447-2743 (5190) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 71¢ | $340.09 | $337.7 | -$2.4 | 59% 45107-31485 (76592) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 76¢ | $266.57 | $240.26 | -$26.31 | 50% 33062-32629 (65691) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 72.3¢ | $228.52 | $222.78 | -$5.74 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $14.63 | $13.19 | -$1.44 | 62% 1102-662 (1764) |
RN1Invested
$3,650
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$225
Record
54%
56041-48162 (104203)
Invested
$2,059.18
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$34.26
Record
49%
18827-19233 (38060)
Invested
$1,138.79
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$19.52
Record
50%
24690-24365 (49055)
Both legs:
Invested
$730
Value
$735
PnL
+$5
Record
47%
2447-2743 (5190)
Invested
$340.09
Value
$337.7
PnL
-$2.4
Record
59%
45107-31485 (76592)
Invested
$266.57
Value
$240.26
PnL
-$26.31
Record
50%
33062-32629 (65691)
Invested
$228.52
Value
$222.78
PnL
-$5.74
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$14.63
Value
$13.19
PnL
-$1.44
Record
62%
1102-662 (1764)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.