Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Auriense CA vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 6.5
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 40¢ · $537 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
2
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$537.02
$13
Research grade
NeutralOver at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 34.4¢ | $290.88 | $316 | +$25.12 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 34.4¢ | $167.66 | $194.8 | +$27.14 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 61¢ | $123.22 | $121.2 | -$2.02 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 37.4¢ | $197.52 | $210.97 | +$13.45 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 62.7¢ | $10.5 | $10.05 | -$0.45 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
Invested
$290.88
Value
$316
PnL
+$25.12
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
Both legs:
Invested
$197.52
Value
$210.97
PnL
+$13.45
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.5
Value
$10.05
PnL
-$0.45
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.