Auriense CA vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 60¢ · $140 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$139.82
$8.43
64.7¢ → 60¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $55.35 | $55.81 | +$0.46 | 60% 864-572 (1436) |
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $56.82 | $48.57 | -$8.26 | 51% 221-216 (437) |
 SharkbettingComCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $16.1 | $31.8 | +$15.7 | 42% 271-374 (645) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.01 | $1.9 | +$0.89 | 59% 9650-6640 (16290) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 70.9¢ | $2.11 | $1.75 | -$0.36 | 52% 3660-3323 (6983) |
Invested
$55.35
Value
$55.81
PnL
+$0.46
Record
60%
864-572 (1436)
Invested
$56.82
Value
$48.57
PnL
-$8.26
Record
51%
221-216 (437)
SharkbettingComCTR<$100Invested
$16.1
Value
$31.8
PnL
+$15.7
Record
42%
271-374 (645)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.89
Record
59%
9650-6640 (16290)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.11
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$0.36
Record
52%
3660-3323 (6983)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.