Atlético Calatayud CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 5.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 81¢ · $910 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$910.07
-$50.49
82.4¢ → 81¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 84.3¢ | $532.34 | $536.54 | +$4.2 | 50% 24694-24376 (49070) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Underavg 57.4¢ | $217.66 | $189.5 | -$28.16 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
 poshposhCTR | Underavg 58¢ | $194.77 | $167.91 | -$26.86 | 59% 9693-6689 (16382) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $9.75 | $9.75 | +$0 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $2.22 | $3.22 | +$1 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $3.45 | $2.75 | -$0.7 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $0.37 | $0.4 | +$0.03 | 54% 56046-48172 (104218) |
Invested
$532.34
Value
$536.54
PnL
+$4.2
Record
50%
24694-24376 (49070)
Invested
$217.66
Value
$189.5
PnL
-$28.16
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
poshposhCTRInvested
$194.77
Value
$167.91
PnL
-$26.86
Record
59%
9693-6689 (16382)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$9.75
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.22
Value
$3.22
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$2.75
PnL
-$0.7
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
56046-48172 (104218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.