Will Águilas FC win on 2026-10-29?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 71¢ · $446 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$445.9
$5.55
69¢ → 70.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 69¢ | $220.8 | $224 | +$3.2 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 69.9¢ | $134.99 | $135.18 | +$0.19 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $45.36 | $48.11 | +$2.41 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $31.35 | $31.35 | +$0 | 50% 3757-3733 (7490) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $4.48 | $4.26 | -$0.25 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $3 | $3 | -$0 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
RN1Invested
$220.8
Value
$224
PnL
+$3.2
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
Invested
$134.99
Value
$135.18
PnL
+$0.19
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
poshposh<$100Invested
$45.36
Value
$48.11
PnL
+$2.41
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
Invested
$31.35
Value
$31.35
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3757-3733 (7490)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.48
Value
$4.26
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
$3
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.