Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: CD Anaitasuna 0 - 3 Deportivo Alavés?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 25¢ · $533 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$532.53
$474.2
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.46 | $139.54 | +$124.46 | 21% 612-2279 (2891) |
 SilentSharkCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $5 | $125 | +$120 | 58% 196-140 (336) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $4.97 | $124.27 | +$119.3 | 47% 120-133 (253) |
AH aHjCzCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $13.07 | $122.68 | +$109.62 | 45% 32075-39228 (71303) |
AS asdkjhsad<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $0.21 | $15.98 | +$15.77 | — 0-4 (4) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $20.01 | $5.05 | -$14.95 | 65% 25712-13834 (39546) |
Invested
$0.46
Value
$139.54
PnL
+$124.46
Record
21%
612-2279 (2891)
SilentSharkCTRInvested
$5
Value
$125
PnL
+$120
Record
58%
196-140 (336)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$124.27
PnL
+$119.3
Record
47%
120-133 (253)
Invested
$13.07
Value
$122.68
PnL
+$109.62
Record
45%
32075-39228 (71303)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$15.98
PnL
+$15.77
Record
—
0-4 (4)
Invested
$20.01
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$14.95
Record
65%
25712-13834 (39546)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.