Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

SD Amorebieta vs. UD Logroñés: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $21 held · ended Nov 4

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$21.28

Combined PnL

$1.46

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$10.78

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$1.17

Over2 traders

Total Value$10.5

Total Shares21

Combined PnL+$0.29

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen<$100	Underavg 51¢	$6.84	$7.78	+$0.93	53% 2579-2259 (4838)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 47¢	$7.05	$7.5	+$0.53	49% 14711-15381 (30092)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$2.89	$3	-$0.24	52% 1380-1295 (2675)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.76	$3	+$0.24	47% 11713-13434 (25147)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Under

Invested

$6.84

Value

$7.78

PnL

+$0.93

Record

53%

2579-2259 (4838)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.53

Record

49%

14711-15381 (30092)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$2.89

Value

PnL

-$0.24

Record

52%

1380-1295 (2675)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$2.76

Value

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

11713-13434 (25147)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.