RSD Alcalá vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 99.5¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares13,318

Combined PnL+$6.7K

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,054

Combined PnL-$794.09

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rocko33CTR	Overavg 4.6¢	$600	$6.3K	+$5.9K	64% 955-534 (1489)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 90.1¢	$1.7K	$952.6	-$782.22	72% 2231-853 (3084)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR	Overavg 0.7¢	$4.8	$337.34	+$332.54	42% 2198-2981 (5179)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 38.2¢	$73.84	$97.43	+$23.59	60% 9138-6084 (15222)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 62¢	$37.2	$29.7	-$7.5	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
RN1<$100	Underavg 60¢	$29.39	$24.47	-$4.92	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 53¢	$16.79	$17.34	+$0.55	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
MI MinevaJCTR	Overavg 38¢	$1.6K	$14.64	+$414.28	58% 994-726 (1720)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$5	$10.1	+$5.1	55% 8039-6508 (14547)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$4.13	$4.09	-$0.04	59% 44322-30683 (75005)

Rocko33CTR

Over

Invested

$600

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

64%

955-534 (1489)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$1,734.82

Value

$952.6

PnL

-$782.22

Record

72%

2231-853 (3084)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$337.34

PnL

+$332.54

Record

42%

2198-2981 (5179)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.84

Value

$97.43

PnL

+$23.59

Record

60%

9138-6084 (15222)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$37.2

Value

$29.7

PnL

-$7.5

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$29.39

Value

$24.47

PnL

-$4.92

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$16.79

Value

$17.34

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

MinevaJCTR

Over

Invested

$1,562.73

Value

$14.64

PnL

+$414.28

Record

58%

994-726 (1720)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$5.1

Record

55%

8039-6508 (14547)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$0.04

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.