Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold UD Las Palmas, while the market favors RSD Alcalá (94%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: UD Las Palmas (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UD Las Palmas (33%) · UD Las Palmas at 6.0¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
UD Las Palmas
6
UD Las Palmas 33%
$9.3K
$498.84
45.8¢ → 6¢
-87% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUD Las Palmas at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors RSD Alcalá 94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on UD Las Palmas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | RSD Alcaláavg 55.3¢ | $3.7K | $4.6K | +$881.98 | 54% 55371-47422 (102793) |
JU justbusiness1CTR | UD Las Palmasavg 46.1¢ | $4.5K | $4.3K | -$300.89 | 53% 254-225 (479) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | RSD Alcaláavg 54.9¢ | $208.51 | $212.79 | +$4.28 | 58% 27876-20518 (48394) |
 poshposh | RSD Alcaláavg 54¢ | $110.94 | $124.29 | +$13.35 | 60% 9127-6066 (15193) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | UD Las Palmasavg 38.8¢ | $129.18 | $28.28 | -$100.9 | 59% 44310-30670 (74980) |
 HRTrading<$100 | RSD Alcaláavg 58.6¢ | $4.32 | $5.35 | +$1.02 | 54% 2625-2252 (4877) |
RN1Invested
$3,698.14
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$881.98
Record
54%
55371-47422 (102793)
Invested
$4,542.73
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$300.89
Record
53%
254-225 (479)
Invested
$208.51
Value
$212.79
PnL
+$4.28
Record
58%
27876-20518 (48394)
poshposhInvested
$110.94
Value
$124.29
PnL
+$13.35
Record
60%
9127-6066 (15193)
Invested
$129.18
Value
$28.28
PnL
-$100.9
Record
59%
44310-30670 (74980)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.32
Value
$5.35
PnL
+$1.02
Record
54%
2625-2252 (4877)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.