Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 43%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
-$97.48
56.7¢ → 0.4¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MinevaJCTR | Yesavg 55.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.5K | +$640.29 | 58% 994-726 (1720) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 41.8¢ | $1.2K | $562.52 | -$674.47 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 68¢ | $304.94 | $300.36 | -$4.58 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 45.1¢ | $61.09 | $124.94 | +$63.86 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 41.6¢ | $245.64 | $112.27 | -$133.37 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $134.21 | $77.79 | -$56.42 | 60% 9138-6084 (15222) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41¢ | $121.16 | $56.21 | -$64.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49¢ | $13.05 | $21.58 | +$8.52 | |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $21.1 | $31.65 | +$10.55 | 55% 1677-1370 (3047) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $5.25 | $5.48 | +$0.24 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
Invested
$2,246.95
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$640.29
Record
58%
994-726 (1720)
Invested
$1,236.99
Value
$562.52
PnL
-$674.47
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Invested
$304.94
Value
$300.36
PnL
-$4.58
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
HRTradingInvested
$61.09
Value
$124.94
PnL
+$63.86
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Invested
$245.64
Value
$112.27
PnL
-$133.37
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$134.21
Value
$77.79
PnL
-$56.42
Record
60%
9138-6084 (15222)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.1
Value
$31.65
PnL
+$10.55
Record
55%
1677-1370 (3047)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.25
Value
$5.48
PnL
+$0.24
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.