Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AE Prat vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 34¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$5.9K
$1.9K
34¢ → 33.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SharkbettingComCTR | Overavg 34¢ | $3.8K | $5.6K | +$1.8K | 42% 271-374 (645) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 34.5¢ | $102 | $147.8 | +$45.79 | 50% 24686-24363 (49049) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 35.2¢ | $195.63 | $100 | +$26.8 | 58% 41218-29884 (71102) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 34.5¢ | $53.12 | $52.64 | -$0.48 | 52% 3691-3354 (7045) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 34.1¢ | $30.15 | $44.25 | +$14.1 | 59% 45098-31483 (76581) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $15.98 | $24.21 | +$8.23 | 49% 12395-12710 (25105) |
SharkbettingComCTRInvested
$3,777.74
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
42%
271-374 (645)
Invested
$102
Value
$147.8
PnL
+$45.79
Record
50%
24686-24363 (49049)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$195.63
Value
$100
PnL
+$26.8
Record
58%
41218-29884 (71102)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$53.12
Value
$52.64
PnL
-$0.48
Record
52%
3691-3354 (7045)
Invested
$30.15
Value
$44.25
PnL
+$14.1
Record
59%
45098-31483 (76581)
Invested
$15.98
Value
$24.21
PnL
+$8.23
Record
49%
12395-12710 (25105)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.