AE Prat vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 52¢ · $385 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$384.52
-$6.09
51.9¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 51¢ | $105 | $106.03 | +$1.03 | 50% 24686-24363 (49049) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $96.22 | $95.28 | -$0.95 | 52% 3691-3354 (7045) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 52.7¢ | $157.99 | $77.25 | -$1.25 | 58% 41218-29884 (71102) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 52.2¢ | $49.59 | $47.5 | -$2.09 | 59% 45098-31483 (76581) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $35.23 | $33.88 | -$1.35 | 49% 12395-12710 (25105) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $26.07 | $24.59 | -$1.48 | 49% 18820-19225 (38045) |
Invested
$105
Value
$106.03
PnL
+$1.03
Record
50%
24686-24363 (49049)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$96.22
Value
$95.28
PnL
-$0.95
Record
52%
3691-3354 (7045)
VeryLucky888Invested
$157.99
Value
$77.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
58%
41218-29884 (71102)
Invested
$49.59
Value
$47.5
PnL
-$2.09
Record
59%
45098-31483 (76581)
Invested
$35.23
Value
$33.88
PnL
-$1.35
Record
49%
12395-12710 (25105)
Invested
$26.07
Value
$24.59
PnL
-$1.48
Record
49%
18820-19225 (38045)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.