Will AE Prat win on 2026-10-29?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $69K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$69.1K
$-2.2K
99.4¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
99 999585 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $66.2K | $66.3K | +$99.84 | 100% 20-0 (20) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 98.7¢ | $4.5K | $2.4K | $-2.1K | 49% 12429-12737 (25166) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 98.5¢ | $638.43 | $337.1 | -$301.33 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.39 | $94.56 | +$94.17 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $22.11 | $12.13 | -$9.98 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $8.3 | $5.81 | -$2.49 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
Invested
$66,226.97
Value
$66.3K
PnL
+$99.84
Record
100%
20-0 (20)
Invested
$4,481.2
Value
$2.4K
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
49%
12429-12737 (25166)
Invested
$638.43
Value
$337.1
PnL
-$301.33
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.39
Value
$94.56
PnL
+$94.17
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
poshposh<$100Invested
$22.11
Value
$12.13
PnL
-$9.98
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.3
Value
$5.81
PnL
-$2.49
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.