Will FC Vesoul vs. FC Fleury 91 end in a draw?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes92¢No8¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$266.44

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 92¢

+37% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,163

Combined PnL+$396.3

No8 traders

Total Value$295.01

Total Shares884

Combined PnL-$129.86

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SilentShark	Yesavg 67.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$398.51	— 0-1 (1)
poshposhCTR	Noavg 62.2¢	$178.18	$166.12	-$12.06	49% 1169-1236 (2405)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Noavg 40.1¢	$119.11	$37.13	-$81.98	34% 377-716 (1093)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$70.99	$36.59	-$34.41	45% 679-837 (1516)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$8.5	$29	+$20.5	53% 7137-6246 (13383)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$20.75	$14.5	-$6.25	44% 386-482 (868)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$6.25	$5.8	-$0.45	52% 24-22 (46)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 37.7¢	$20.99	$4.45	-$16.54	47% 993-1122 (2115)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$5.1	$2.89	-$2.21	50% 161-158 (319)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.1	$1.41	+$1.31	3% 9-291 (300)

SilentShark

Yes

Invested

$1,132.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$398.51

Record

—

0-1 (1)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$178.18

Value

$166.12

PnL

-$12.06

Record

49%

1169-1236 (2405)

SlickRick123CTR

Invested

$119.11

Value

$37.13

PnL

-$81.98

Record

34%

377-716 (1093)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$70.99

Value

$36.59

PnL

-$34.41

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$29

PnL

+$20.5

Record

53%

7137-6246 (13383)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$20.75

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$6.25

Record

44%

386-482 (868)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Invested

$6.25

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

24-22 (46)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$20.99

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$16.54

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.1

Value

$2.89

PnL

-$2.21

Record

50%

161-158 (319)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$1.31

Record

9-291 (300)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.