Will Vendée Fontenay Foot win on 2026-11-13?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $874 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$874

Combined PnL

-$16.97

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$873.71

Total Shares894

Combined PnL-$16.97

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77	Noavg 99.6¢	$433.26	$425	-$8.26	86% 32-5 (37)
ME merod	Noavg 99.6¢	$377.49	$370.3	-$7.19	85% 22-4 (26)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.76	$58.62	-$1.14	28% 2405-6142 (8547)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.06	$8.89	-$0.17	30% 176-415 (591)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.97	$5.86	-$0.11	28% 156-401 (557)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.14	$5.04	-$0.1	34% 153-295 (448)

korda77

Invested

$433.26

Value

$425

PnL

-$8.26

Record

86%

32-5 (37)

merod

Invested

$377.49

Value

$370.3

PnL

-$7.19

Record

85%

22-4 (26)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$59.76

Value

$58.62

PnL

-$1.14

Record

28%

2405-6142 (8547)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$0.17

Record

30%

176-415 (591)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.97

Value

$5.86

PnL

-$0.11

Record

28%

156-401 (557)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.14

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.1

Record

34%

153-295 (448)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.