Will USPF Saint-Philbert-de-Grand-Lieu win on 2026-11-13?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $870 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$870
-$17.68
99.9¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $434.57 | $425.87 | -$8.7 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
ME merod | Noavg 99.9¢ | $378.64 | $371.06 | -$7.58 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $58.74 | -$1.2 | 28% 2405-6142 (8547) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $9.04 | $8.91 | -$0.13 | 35% 141-260 (401) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $5.12 | $5.05 | -$0.07 | 36% 493-882 (1375) |
Invested
$434.57
Value
$425.87
PnL
-$8.7
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$378.64
Value
$371.06
PnL
-$7.58
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$58.74
PnL
-$1.2
Record
28%
2405-6142 (8547)
Invested
$9.04
Value
$8.91
PnL
-$0.13
Record
35%
141-260 (401)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.07
Record
36%
493-882 (1375)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.