Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 29¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$1.0K
-$12.49
34.5¢ → 29¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredictsCTR | Noavg 9¢ | $65.52 | $453.5 | +$167.43 | 18% 526-2353 (2879) |
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Noavg 53.5¢ | $380.1 | $208.68 | -$171.42 | 46% 337-388 (725) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e | Yesavg 71¢ | $142 | $140 | -$2 | 77% 258-76 (334) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Noavg 57¢ | $114 | $130 | -$29 | 70% 3143-1354 (4497) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $47.5 | $70 | +$22.5 | 56% 15290-11834 (27124) |
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$65.52
Value
$453.5
PnL
+$167.43
Record
18%
526-2353 (2879)
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$380.1
Value
$208.68
PnL
-$171.42
Record
46%
337-388 (725)
Invested
$142
Value
$140
PnL
-$2
Record
77%
258-76 (334)
Invested
$114
Value
$130
PnL
-$29
Record
70%
3143-1354 (4497)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$47.5
Value
$70
PnL
+$22.5
Record
56%
15290-11834 (27124)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.