Wyoming Cowboys vs. Denver Pioneers: O/U 148.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$5.63

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,216

Combined PnL-$21.33

Under7 traders

Total Value$703.21

Total Shares1,480

Combined PnL+$15.7

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603	Overavg 53.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$21.33	57% 13-10 (23)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$564.9	$523.42	+$6.52	57% 3662-2818 (6480)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$396.4	$400.61	+$5.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$121.5	$122.81	+$1.31
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 46¢	$450.81	$465.51	+$14.7	22% 175-612 (787)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46.6¢	$70.82	$72.11	+$1.3	53% 1298-1131 (2429)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$59.69	$60.32	+$0.63	34% 99-192 (291)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 47.9¢	$54.46	$54.02	-$0.43	35% 159-301 (460)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$47.61	$47.11	-$0.5	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.38	-$0.02	41% 671-981 (1652)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$1.73	$1.75	+$0.02	54% 279-236 (515)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603

Over

Invested

$1,184.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$21.33

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$564.9

Value

$523.42

PnL

+$6.52

Record

57%

3662-2818 (6480)

Both legs:

Under$396.447¢+$5.22

Over$121.551.9¢+$1.31

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$450.81

Value

$465.51

PnL

+$14.7

Record

22%

175-612 (787)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.82

Value

$72.11

PnL

+$1.3

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.69

Value

$60.32

PnL

+$0.63

Record

34%

99-192 (291)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.46

Value

$54.02

PnL

-$0.43

Record

35%

159-301 (460)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.61

Value

$47.11

PnL

-$0.5

Record

46%

2495-2986 (5481)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

671-981 (1652)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

279-236 (515)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.