Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wofford Terriers, while the market favors Queens (NC) Royals (79%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Wofford Terriers vs. Queens (NC) Royals
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wofford Terriers (78%) · Wofford Terriers at 22¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Wofford Terriers
9
Wofford Terriers 78%
$1.2K
$158.2
32.5¢ → 21.5¢
-34% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidWofford Terriers at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Queens (NC) Royals 79%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Queens (NC) Royalsavg 63.4¢ | $376.07 | $465.51 | +$89.44 | 39% 562-895 (1457) |
 RN1CTR | Wofford Terriersavg 36.2¢ | $154.52 | $170.77 | +$16.25 | 55% 5402-4371 (9773) |
VE VenusianCTR | Wofford Terriersavg 29¢ | $142.39 | $152.21 | +$9.82 | 37% 991-1715 (2706) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Wofford Terriersavg 36.3¢ | $127.02 | $138.25 | +$11.23 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Wofford Terriersavg 26¢ | $78.52 | $93.62 | +$15.1 | 43% 185-243 (428) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Wofford Terriersavg 37.4¢ | $67.77 | $72.4 | +$4.63 | 50% 1594-1620 (3214) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Wofford Terriersavg 37¢ | $36.74 | $39.72 | +$2.98 | 50% 2543-2505 (5048) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Queens (NC) Royalsavg 59¢ | $29.5 | $34.5 | +$5 | 35% 162-305 (467) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Wofford Terriersavg 26¢ | $19.5 | $23.25 | +$3.75 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
Invested
$376.07
Value
$465.51
PnL
+$89.44
Record
39%
562-895 (1457)
RN1CTRInvested
$154.52
Value
$170.77
PnL
+$16.25
Record
55%
5402-4371 (9773)
Invested
$142.39
Value
$152.21
PnL
+$9.82
Record
37%
991-1715 (2706)
Invested
$127.02
Value
$138.25
PnL
+$11.23
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$78.52
Value
$93.62
PnL
+$15.1
Record
43%
185-243 (428)
Invested
$67.77
Value
$72.4
PnL
+$4.63
Record
50%
1594-1620 (3214)
Invested
$36.74
Value
$39.72
PnL
+$2.98
Record
50%
2543-2505 (5048)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$5
Record
35%
162-305 (467)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$23.25
PnL
+$3.75
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Queens (NC) Royals — $465.51
RN1
CTRWofford Terriers — $170.77
Venusian
CTRWofford Terriers — $152.21
38791873984189
CTRWofford Terriers — $138.25
NatoAlfista
CTRWofford Terriers — $93.62
Pan9X
CTRWofford Terriers — $72.4
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRWofford Terriers — $39.72
BoomLaLa
Queens (NC) Royals — $34.5
HomeRunHazard
CTRWofford Terriers — $23.25