Western Michigan Broncos vs. Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles: O/U 141.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (11%) · Under at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$60.99

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$686.37

Total Shares1,215

Combined PnL+$56.65

Over8 traders

Total Value$322.4

Total Shares669

Combined PnL+$4.33

Under — 11%Over — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48.1¢	$800.12	$720.3	-$47.45	56% 3811-2982 (6793)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$593.35	$536.11	-$58.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.1¢	$173.13	$184.2	+$11.07
IC ic4cream	Underavg 51.8¢	$629.72	$686.37	+$56.65	8% 42-467 (509)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$400	$95	+$1	66% 141-74 (215)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$71	$71.25	+$0.25	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$56.16	$57.92	+$1.76	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$48	$49.5	+$1.5	45% 298-371 (669)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$35.33	$34.96	-$0.37	38% 134-216 (350)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$10.34	$10.45	+$0.11	52% 365-331 (696)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.48	+$0.02	42% 775-1070 (1845)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.85	+$0.06	35% 192-351 (543)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$800.12

Value

$720.3

PnL

-$47.45

Record

56%

3811-2982 (6793)

Both legs:

Over$593.3548.1¢-$58.52

Under$173.1353.1¢+$11.07

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$629.72

Value

$686.37

PnL

+$56.65

Record

42-467 (509)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$95

PnL

+$1

Record

66%

141-74 (215)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71

Value

$71.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.16

Value

$57.92

PnL

+$1.76

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

45%

298-371 (669)

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.33

Value

$34.96

PnL

-$0.37

Record

38%

134-216 (350)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.34

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

365-331 (696)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

775-1070 (1845)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.06

Record

35%

192-351 (543)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.