Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Utah Utes, while the market favors Weber State Wildcats (54%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Utah Utes (-17.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Utah Utes (50%) · Utah Utes at 46¢ · $752 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Utah Utes
4
Utah Utes 50%
1 arb excluded
$751.66
$13.32
47¢ → 46¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUtah Utes at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Weber State Wildcats 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Utah Utes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Weber State Wildcatsavg 53¢ | $346.32 | $333 | -$13.32 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
| └ Weber State Wildcats leg | Weber State Wildcatsavg 53¢ | $176.49 | $176.49 | -$0 | |
| └ Utah Utes leg | Utah Utesavg 51¢ | $169.83 | $156.51 | -$13.32 | |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Utah Utesavg 47¢ | $184.18 | $184.18 | +$0 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Weber State Wildcatsavg 49¢ | $165.62 | $179.14 | +$13.52 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Weber State Wildcatsavg 53¢ | $53 | $53 | -$0 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Utah Utesavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.35 | -$0.2 | 24% 161-506 (667) |
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$346.32
Value
$333
PnL
-$13.32
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
Both legs:
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$184.18
Value
$184.18
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$165.62
Value
$179.14
PnL
+$13.52
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$53
Value
$53
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.2
Record
24%
161-506 (667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.