Weber State Wildcats vs. Utah Utes
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Utah Utes (40%) · Utah Utes at 94¢ · $834 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Utah Utes
5
Utah Utes 40%
$833.76
$1.49
93.9¢ → 93.8¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUtah Utes at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Utah Utes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Utah Utesavg 93.9¢ | $689.23 | $688.13 | -$1.1 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Weber State Wildcatsavg 6.1¢ | $72.92 | $72.49 | -$0.43 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Utah Utesavg 93.3¢ | $56 | $47.89 | +$0.34 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Weber State Wildcatsavg 5.4¢ | $22.01 | $24.64 | +$2.63 | 8% 37-422 (459) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Weber State Wildcatsavg 5.6¢ | $0.56 | $0.61 | +$0.05 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
nigiri99Invested
$689.23
Value
$688.13
PnL
-$1.1
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
Invested
$72.92
Value
$72.49
PnL
-$0.43
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Invested
$56
Value
$47.89
PnL
+$0.34
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$22.01
Value
$24.64
PnL
+$2.63
Record
8%
37-422 (459)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.61
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.