Washington Huskies vs. Utah Utes
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Utah Utes (78%) · Utah Utes at 52¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Utah Utes
9
Utah Utes 78%
$4.0K
$42.53
52.7¢ → 51.5¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUtah Utes at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Utah Utes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppauCTR | Washington Huskiesavg 44.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$64.07 | 99% 794-2 (796) |
LP lpcapital1 | Utah Utesavg 53.9¢ | $842.49 | $818.07 | -$24.41 | — |
CA canupdatelateronCTR | Washington Huskiesavg 47.2¢ | $646.1 | $663.91 | +$17.81 | 67% 28-14 (42) |
IC ic4cream | Utah Utesavg 52.3¢ | $395.82 | $395.82 | -$0 | 9% 45-474 (519) |
 nigiri99 | Utah Utesavg 52¢ | $286.52 | $283.77 | -$2.76 | 50% 690-699 (1389) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Utah Utesavg 50¢ | $1.6K | $209.39 | -$10.61 | 65% 142-77 (219) |
BA Bayupati | Utah Utesavg 53¢ | $125.26 | $123.74 | -$1.52 | 19% 38-161 (199) |
FO forecastication4 | Utah Utesavg 52.6¢ | $115.21 | $114.64 | -$0.57 | 35% 195-357 (552) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Utah Utesavg 52¢ | $78 | $78.52 | +$0.52 | 44% 316-399 (715) |
Invested
$1,209.56
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$64.07
Record
99%
794-2 (796)
Invested
$842.49
Value
$818.07
PnL
-$24.41
Record
—
Invested
$646.1
Value
$663.91
PnL
+$17.81
Record
67%
28-14 (42)
Invested
$395.82
Value
$395.82
PnL
-$0
Record
9%
45-474 (519)
nigiri99Invested
$286.52
Value
$283.77
PnL
-$2.76
Record
50%
690-699 (1389)
Invested
$1,650
Value
$209.39
PnL
-$10.61
Record
65%
142-77 (219)
Invested
$125.26
Value
$123.74
PnL
-$1.52
Record
19%
38-161 (199)
Invested
$115.21
Value
$114.64
PnL
-$0.57
Record
35%
195-357 (552)
Invested
$78
Value
$78.52
PnL
+$0.52
Record
44%
316-399 (715)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
looppau
CTRWashington Huskies — $1.3K
lpcapital1
Utah Utes — $818.07
canupdatelateron
CTRWashington Huskies — $663.91
ic4cream
Utah Utes — $395.82
nigiri99
Utah Utes — $283.77
overtimemarkets.xyz-singles
Utah Utes — $209.39
Bayupati
Utah Utes — $123.74
forecastication4
Utah Utes — $114.64
Forecastication2
Utah Utes — $78.52