Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 141.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 55¢ · $431 held · ends Nov 11

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$431.25

Combined PnL

$12.53

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$305.91

Total Shares618

Combined PnL+$2.89

Over4 traders

Total Value$125.34

Total Shares248

Combined PnL+$9.64

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49¢	$303.02	$305.91	+$2.89	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$80.16	$86.13	+$5.97	51% 252-247 (499)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$18.42	$20.22	+$1.8	56% 117-91 (208)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$12.43	$13.95	+$1.52	48% 927-1003 (1930)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.7	$5.05	+$0.35	25% 171-513 (684)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$303.02

Value

$305.91

PnL

+$2.89

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.16

Value

$86.13

PnL

+$5.97

Record

51%

252-247 (499)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.42

Value

$20.22

PnL

+$1.8

Record

56%

117-91 (208)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.43

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$1.52

Record

48%

927-1003 (1930)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.35

Record

25%

171-513 (684)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.