Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 140.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 92¢ · $71 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$70.95
$5.6
Research grade
AvoidOver at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4creamCTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $31.9 | $31.28 | -$0.61 | 1% 4-440 (444) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $19.19 | $24.09 | +$4.9 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $9.18 | $9.18 | +$0 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2 | $2.36 | +$0.36 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $1.81 | $2.32 | +$0.51 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $1.27 | $1.72 | +$0.44 | 54% 1656-1433 (3089) |
Invested
$31.9
Value
$31.28
PnL
-$0.61
Record
1%
4-440 (444)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$19.19
Value
$24.09
PnL
+$4.9
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.18
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.36
PnL
+$0.36
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.51
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.44
Record
54%
1656-1433 (3089)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.